The 2016 Blue Plate Special On Orlando Jihad

The 2016 Blue Plate Special On Orlando Jihad

….in two tweets.

“Ladies” first:

“Let’s be clear: Islam is not our adversary. Muslims are peaceful and tolerant people and have nothing whatsoever to do with terrorism.”

Kinda puts the “d” in “delusional,” doesn’t it?  Although it also bears the mark of Her Nib’s trademark hamfisted, pandering, rote recitations, like she cut & pasted it from the leftwingnut catchphrase list and shot it out into the cyberether like her pantsuit was on fire.

But as with pretty much everything else Mrs. Clinton has done and said in this campaign, it has the reek of “been there, done that, got the t-shirt” to it.  There’s no blasting of Commissar Upside-Down Legs that hasn’t been blasted countless times before over the past quarter-century.  She is what she is, we’ve said about it and her what we’ve said, and frankly continuing to whale away, while necessary, is excruciatingly tedious and, by this time, rote recitation in and of itself.

That’s one more thing that makes Donald Trump’s bullshit so much more of a fresh and inviting target:

Appreciate the congrats for being right on radical Islamic terrorism, I don’t want congrats, I want toughness & vigilance. We must be smart!

First of all, if he didn’t want the congratulations, he wouldn’t bring up how much he basks in that imagined glory from it.  Second, and more to the point, he thinks he merits congratulations for making the most basic recognition of established fact: Islamic Fundamentalists are trying to kill us all.  Kinda resembles a “degree” from Trump University, doesn’t it?  And thirdly, and even more to the point, what has he proposed as countermeasures other than insincere vigilance – the Muslim immigration ban he floated and then hastily retreated from last fall – and “bombing the shit” out of ISIS and “taking their oil,” which just so happens to line right up with the Left’s smear of the War Against Islamic Fundamentalism?  The primary campaign pander that he has little remaining interest in pushing in any case, as evinced by his followup tweet that “many, many Muslims are wonderful people”….until they’re not.  Which is kind of the point of the vigilance he purports to tout.

But as a practical matter, while keeping out any more Muzzies, wise as that would be, is certainly a prudent step – or would be if Trump actually meant it – there is the matter of what to do with the ones already here, which a Muslim immigration ban does not address and would not have prevented the jihadist assault in Orlando yesterday morning.  What are the coiffed crusader’s “bold, brash, tell it like it is” big ideas on reining in the jihadists already in our midst?  Is he holding them back until more pats on the back are forthcoming, because his thinking on this topic is as mile-wide and inch-deep as it is on every other, or because he’s actually as Islamophilic as pretty much every other New York liberal?

Trump wanted to be GOP presidential nominee; this is the kind of seriousness and gravitas that designation, as well as his overhyped reputation, requires.

To quote Loki….

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So Much For The “Trump Bump”

So Much For The “Trump Bump”

Remember when Donald Trump actually took the national lead in the RCP average a few weeks ago?  Then remember his racist smear of the federal judge in the Trump University fraud case (that I wanted to write about a week ago but was preempted from doing by other things) on which he is still doubling down?

Yeah, about that:

Polling Data

Poll Date Sample MoE
Clinton (D)
Trump (R)
Spread
RCP Average 5/13 – 6/8 44.1 40.3 Clinton +3.8
FOX News 6/5 – 6/8 1004 RV 3.0 42 39 Clinton +3
Rasmussen Reports 6/6 – 6/7 1000 LV 3.0 42 38 Clinton +4
Reuters/Ipsos 6/4 – 6/8 1440 RV 2.9 42 34 Clinton +8
IBD/TIPP 5/31 – 6/5 850 RV 3.3 45 40 Clinton +5
Quinnipiac 5/24 – 5/30 1561 RV 2.5 45 41 Clinton +4
ABC News/Wash Post 5/16 – 5/19 829 RV 3.5 44 46 Trump +2
NBC News/Wall St. Jrnl 5/15 – 5/19 1000 RV 3.1 46 43 Clinton +3
CBS News/NY Times 5/13 – 5/17 1109 RV 3.0 47 41 Clinton +6

Mrs. Clinton – the worst and (second) weakest major party presidential candidate of the modern era – has regained a five-point RCP average lead since the millionaire slumlord accused Judge Gonzalo Curiel of having a “conflict of interest” because his parents are Mexican.  Not because Judge Curiel is an Obama appointee; not because Judge Curiel is a leftwingnut (who has nonetheless tended to rule impartially and according to the law, as if he has been on a mission to be the exception that proves the rule); because Judge Curiel is “Mexican,” even though he is a naturalized U.S. citizen.  Trump did not allege partisan or ideological bias; he alleged ethnic bias, without evidence, and presuming that all Hispanics/Latinos think monolithically alike.  In so doing, The Donald couldn’t have looked and sounded any more like La Raza or #BlackLivesMatter if he had been trying to do so.  Any more, yes, racist, only from an “anglo” direction, thus giving validation to the half-century Donk smear of Republicans, amplified to the ends of the heavens by Barack Obama for the past eight years, as being “racist” that the party, by acquiescing to his nomination, will never live down and never escape.

And for what?  The White House?  Being the spearhead of an unstoppable, epochal national movement?  Trump’s campaign is borderline broke, the Curiel smear has re-alienated already-wary GOP donors, he’s starting to lose what congressional endorsements he had picked up, and he’s doubling down on the insane notion of blowing off organization, ground game, data operation, and grassroots GOTV efforts in favor of the same Nuremberg-esque mass rallies and top-down, one-size-fits-none, hardcore obnoxious and juvenile national media blitz nonsense that did not win over a majority of Republican primary voters.  And now the Democrat primaries are finally, mercifully over, Weekend Bernie Sanders is finally making noises about calling off his “insurgency,” if not yet necessarily getting behind the Empress, and that means the full, unfettered fury of La Clinton Nostra and the national media is about to fall upon the New York liberal conman.  He will not be facing the clueless, docile GOP primary field, propelled by that same national media that was attempting to impose him on the Republican Party for what should be day-glo obvious reasons.  He will be facing a larger, stronger, richer, ginormously ruthless, bloodsporting enemy that already has its symbolic boot on his throat and will grind it to a pulpy, ganglia, viscera-encrusted mess before snapping his metaphorical neck on November 8th.

Because Hillary Clinton is the spearhead of an unstoppable, epochal national movement?  Hardly.  Nobody likes her, nobody is inspired by her, nobody is impressed by her.  She was the weakest candidate the Dems could have nominated.  But the same is true of Trump, to several additional orders of magnitude.  He is eminently stoppable (mostly by himself), most Americans are equal measures hateful and fearful of him, and he stands for nothing but himself and his gutter-trash, bottom-feeding, amoral character.

At what point does assholery stop being “entertaining”?  The general electorate is increasingly coming to find that out, which helps explain daily tracking polls like this one:

ReutersDaily

A fifth of the electorate is not “undecided,” but wants neither one of these loathsome animals.  Of the other four-fifths, the (re)emerging consensus is that Mrs. Clinton is horrible, but Donald Trump is even worse.

A month further along, I steadfastly and contemptuously deign to offer an opinion on the comparatives of pitting dogshit against horseshit when the common syllable speaks deafeningly for itself.  As should anybody who calls him/herself a constitutional conservative.

To tweak a quote from Nick Fury, I’m baaaaaaaack, and Trumplicans won’t be glad that I am.

Trumpmania Elevating Libertarian Party

Trumpmania Elevating Libertarian Party

On the strength of a large portion of the #NeverTrump protest vote, it would seem.  Not a choice that I would ever make – I’m voting the Constitution Party ticket for POTUS and Republican on the rest of my ballot, and besides, I’m not real big on isolationism or the rights of five-year-olds to purchase heroin – but to each their their temporary electoral home port, I guess.  Assuming that it remains temporary.  If Trump were to win, all bets would certainly be off in that regard.

Now bear in mind that while occasional third candidacies have done very well over the past century – Teddy Roosevelt in 1912 (27.4%, eighty-eight Electoral Votes), John Anderson in 1980 (6.6%), and Ross Perot in 1992 (18.9%) and 1996 (8.4%) – the Libertarians have only exceed 1% of the popular vote once (1.06% in 1980).  So while the Libertarian label is fairly well known, that name has never translated into national electoral inroads for its national candidates.

2016, in the wake of Trumpmania, may be about to dramatically change that:

Two new polls suggest, however, that massive Republican voter dissatisfaction may lead the Libertarians to unheard of electoral heights. First, a Mason-Dixon poll of Florida voters indicates that Gary Johnson is poised to take 7% of the Florida vote, almost all of which comes from the ranks of disaffected former Republican voters. Second, a national Rasmussen poll shows that Johnson is likewise poised to reach 8% nationally, which would lead the Libertarians to the promised land of Federal matching funds (which would of course lead to the hilarious question of whether the Libertarians would accept those funds).

With all the obligatory caveats of this being early June and the inevitable partisan tribalist centrifugal pull come the fall, this is a potentially YUUUUUUGE problem not just for this cycle, but potentially years to come.  If the Johnson-Weld ticket can do as well as John Anderson did thirty-six years ago, with, say, two-thirds of their vote pile syphoned away from Trump. whose climb will be uphill enough as it is, that’s two popular vote percentage points tacked onto his deficit.  But going forward, with the threshold of federal funding permanently infusing the Libertarian brand – a bigger deal than for random fluke candidacies like Anderson and Perot – this could create a new status quo where the conservative-Trumpoid schism becomes permanent, never heals, and the center-right vote will be perpetually split to the ongoing benefit of the Democrat Left.

A permanent Donk one-party state in America would be Donald Trump’s principle legacy, regardless of how his quixotic run turns out.  Which is precisely what I’ve been saying for the past year is Trump’s core objective.

The bitterest aspect for me is that in 2016 at least, it would leave me with three tickets to vehemently oppose versus the two against which I am dead set already.

I’m telling you, this symbol is becoming more vibrantly relevant all the time.

none-of-the-above

Is The Presidential Race Loosening?

Is The Presidential Race Loosening?

You know that brief, tissue-thin lead in the RCP average that Trump took last week on the strength of a five-point “win” in the no-longer reliable Rasmussen survey?  They gave themselves a mulligan that has put Mrs. Clinton back in front by a nostril:

Polling Data

Poll Date Sample MoE
Clinton (D)
Trump (R)
Spread
RCP Average 5/13 – 5/24 43.8 42.8 Clinton +1.0
Rasmussen Reports 5/23 – 5/24 1000 LV 3.0 40 39 Clinton +1
ABC News/Wash Post 5/16 – 5/19 829 RV 3.5 44 46 Trump +2
NBC News/Wall St. Jrnl 5/15 – 5/19 1000 RV 3.1 46 43 Clinton +3
FOX News 5/14 – 5/17 1021 RV 3.0 42 45 Trump +3
CBS News/NY Times 5/13 – 5/17 1109 RV 3.0 47 41 Clinton +6

Amazing what a three-point correction in one survey does to that overall average, huh?

But that’s minimalist noise at the margins.  Here’s the noteworthy report today that will have Trumplicans bursting their capillaries, whether in fear or anger or more likely both:

Donald Trump trails Hillary Clinton by seven percentage points among middle-income voters in the Rust Belt, a key demographic he almost certainly needs to become president.

Likely voters with annual family incomes of $30,000 to $75,000 in Michigan, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin back [Mrs.] Clinton over Trump, 46% to 39%, the latest Purple Slice online poll for Bloomberg Politics shows.

The findings should sound an alarm for Trump because they show he’s failing—at least so far—to dominate among the sort of voters thought to be more sympathetic to him. The poll also splashes cold water on suggestions that the real-estate developer and TV personality is well positioned to win in the Rust Belt.

The Rust Belt path holds that if Trump can hold the States Mitt Romney won in 2012 and add these four upper midwest States to the GOP “pile,” he’ll get to 270 Electoral Votes and win the election.  But he’s not even close in any of them – under 40% – and is looking like a loser in several of those aforementioned Romney States like Arizona, North Carolina, and Georgia.

And in case you were wondering, the Bloomberg survey is no outlier.  From the RCP State averages:

MICHIGAN: Rodham 49.3%, Trump 37.0%

OHIO: Rodham 42.7%, Trump 41.3%

PENNSYLVANIA: Rodham 47.0%, Trump 41.7%

WISCONSIN: Rodham 47.3%, Trump 35.8%

The four-State average is Rodham 46.6%, Trump 39.0% – or a 7.6% margin.  And he’s got to take ALL FOUR for the Rust Belt strategy to work.

That is highly unlikely, given The Donald’s intractable polling negatives across the board:

The news isn’t all good for Hillary in this poll. Despite the natural Democrat advantage in these States — the last time any of them except Ohio went for a Republican presidential nominee was in 1988 — Hillary’s favorables are still negative at 42/56. Trump scores worse at 34/64, while Obama — who won all four of these States twice — only gets a 50/49 despite an uptick in his national job approval ratings. Bernie Sanders has the best favorability rating of anyone mentioned at 55/41.

Also, if Trump is considering Newt Gingrich as his running mate for this Rust Belt-o-rama, forget it — he has a worse favorability rating than Trump at 23/58.

The key to this result comes in the personal-qualities measures. Trump scores well on changing the way Washington does business (50/22), but middle-income voters think Hillary will fight harder for the middle class (43/29), cares more about people like themselves (39/26), and understands their challenges (38/27) than Trump by substantial margins. On presidential temperament, Trump loses badly (22/49), as well as on foreign-policy skills (22/54). [emphases added]

All together now and one more time from the top: Most voters don’t like Hillary Clinton, but they detest Donald Trump.

How does he ostensibly turn these death-knelling numbers around?  The very boring GOTV organizing and ground game that he continues to spurn, or outsource to the RNC as an afterthought, the absence of which cost John McCain and Mitt Romney the presidency in the previous two cycles:

To win in these States, the Trump campaign has to make itself relevant to voters at the local level. As I wrote in my book Going Red, voters in swing States don’t make emotional connections to thirty thousand-foot messaging and big rallies. That comes through localized, peer-to-peer politics that build emotional connections to the national campaign by contextualizing it into the lives of the voters and their communities. Mitt Romney and John McCain tried the thirty thousand-foot model and ended up on the wrong end of the “cares about you” question by wide margins, and the elections as a result.

In order to take States and demographics away from Democrats — either on the Rust Belt path or on the more traditional swing-State model in Going Red — the Republican candidate has to outfight Democrats at that level where Democrats have succeeded for at least two straight presidential cycles, and in three of these four States for a lot longer than that. Until Trump runs that kind of campaign, then the Rust Belt model won’t work for him any better than the 2012 swing-State model will.

And that’s not the kind of campaign Trump wants to run, because it’s boring and takes the spotlight off of him and he doesn’t think it’s necessary because he won 11.5 million votes in the primaries, didn’t he?  How’s that any different from winning six times that many in the general, right?

And also because he’s a coiffed, conceited moron.

When Trump goes down in flames in November, it will be because of nobody else, first and foremost, but Donald J. Trump, and the ex-conservative idiots who inflicted him on the GOP.

Funny that one of his long-time and closest friends will be the primary beneficiary, huh?